M1 Finance Portfolio: Dividend Aristocrats 2019 - Week 6 (November 22nd, 2019 - $170.73)

Week 6 - $170.73

The stock market performed negatively for most of the week, only regaining some of the losses on Friday.

Total Report (Since October 11th, 2019)

 

Positive Performing Sectors

1. Healthcare (+7.22%)

2. Consumer Discretionary (+7.08%)

3. Industrials (+6.42%)

4. Information Technology (+4.50%)

5. Materials (+3.43%)
6. Energy (+2.71%)
7. Consumer Staples (+1.11%)
8. Financials (+0.58%)

Negative Performing Sectors

9. Communication Services (-0.25%)
10. Real Estate (-4.41%)

11. Utilities (-5.97%)

 Weekly Report (November 22nd, 2019)

 

Positive Performing Sectors

1. Consumer Discretionary (+1.68%)

2. Energy (+0.68%)

3. Healthcare (+0.13%)

4. Industrials (+0.07%)

Negative Performing Sectors

5. Consumer Staples (-0.18%)

6. Information Technology (-0.60%)

7. Financials (-0.74%)

8. Real Estate (-1.13%)

9. Utilities (-1.46%)

10. Materials (-2.13%)

11. Communication Services (-4.62%)

Added last week's GSPR-P to blog posts.

GICS Sector Performance Ratio - Balanced: From 9:2 (81.82%) to 4:7 (36.36%)

Rising Sectors (Future Sectors Expected to Perform Positively) 

Last Week  (5):

1. Information Technology (+4.67%)
2. Healthcare (+3.09%)
3. Materials (+1.51%)
7. Communication Services (+0.35%)
8. Consumer Discretionary (+0.29%)

Next Week (5):
1. Consumer Discretionary (+1.68%)

2. Energy (+0.68%)

3. Healthcare (+0.13%)
4. Industrials (+0.07%)
6. Information Technology (-0.60%)

Falling Sectors (Future Sectors Expected to Perform Negatively)

Last Week (2):

4. Utilities (+1.15%)

6. Real Estate (+0.36%)

Next Week (2):

8. Real Estate (-1.13%)

9. Utilities (-1.46%)

Uncertain Sectors (Future Sectors Expected to Perform Uncertainly)

Last Week (4):

5. Consumer Staples (+0.52%)
9. Industrials (+0.07%)
10. Financials (-0.14%)
11. Energy (-0.36%)

Next Week (3):

5. Consumer Staples (-0.18%)

7. Financials (-0.74%)

10. Materials (-2.13%)

Stagnant Sectors (Future Sectors Expected to Perform As Current)

Last Week (0):

None

Next Week (1):

11. Communication Services (-4.62%)

Review

The GSPR trend line has finally reversed from positive to negative, signaling the potential of an economic downturn. It was mentioned last week that given the high sector performance the last few weeks that it would be inevitable for the GSPR to drop at some point, which did happen this week. However the trend line is not strong enough to totally indicate an impending bear market. There is still room for the markets to adjust and resume growth as usual. However it would be prudent to note some of the negative performing sectors this week, namely Materials and Communications, that dropped far more drastically than their peers. Materials had maintained a significantly steady growth for the past few weeks, and for the sector to drop over two percent in a week is concerning. Unless it corrects itself by next week, the Material sector's growth streak may be coming to an end. Similarly, Communication Services suffered the worst. Its loss this week essentially wiped out all the gains it had accumulated last month, putting it as the first Stagnant Sector in this portfolio's history. Until it shows signs that can retain the growth seen in previous weeks and remain positive overall, Communication Services will risk a downgrade towards Falling Sectors alongside Real Estate and Utilities.

Last Week's Update (November 15th, 2019)

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M1 Finance Portfolio: Dividend Aristocrats 2019 - Week 5 (November 15th, 2019 - $162.28)

Week 5 - $162.28

The stock market barely performed positively for most of the week before finally rallying at the end of Friday. 

Total Report (Since October 11th, 2019)

Positive Performing Sectors

1. Healthcare (+8.23%)

2. Industrials (+7.54%)

3. Materials (+6.57%)

4. Information Technology (+5.74%)

5. Communication Services (+5.40%)
6. Consumer Discretionary (+5.17%)
7. Energy (+3.57%)
8. Financials (+1.28%)
9. Consumer Staples (+0.69%)

Negative Performing Sectors

10. Real Estate (-3.27%)

11. Utilities (-4.09%)

Weekly Report (November 15th, 2019)

Positive Performing Sectors

1. Information Technology (+4.67%)

2. Healthcare (+3.09%)

3. Materials (+1.51%)

4. Utilities (+1.15%)

5. Consumer Staples (+0.52%)
6. Real Estate (+0.36%)
7. Communication Services (+0.35%)
8. Consumer Discretionary (+0.29%)
9. Industrials (+0.07%)

Negative Performing Sectors

10. Financials (-0.14%)

11. Energy (-0.36%)

GICS Sector Performance Ratio - Balanced: From 8:3 (72.72%) to 9:2 (81.82%)

Rising Sectors (Future Sectors Expected to Perform Positively) 

Last Week  (4):

1. Materials (+2.17%)

2. Consumer Discretionary (+2.15%)

4. Industrials (+0.85%)

9. Energy (-0.22%)

Next Week (5):
1. Information Technology (+4.67%)
2. Healthcare (+3.09%)
3. Materials (+1.51%)
7. Communication Services (+0.35%)
8. Consumer Discretionary (+0.29%)

Falling Sectors (Future Sectors Expected to Perform Negatively)

Last Week (3):

8. Consumer Staples (+0.28%) 

10. Real Estate (-1.76%)

11. Utilities (-2.07%)

Next Week (2):
4. Utilities (+1.15%)

6. Real Estate (+0.36%) 

Uncertain Sectors (Future Sectors Expected to Perform Uncertainly)

Last Week (4):

3. Communication Services (+1.22%)

5. Healthcare (+0.69%)

6. Information Technology (+0.54%)

7. Financials (+0.46%)

Next Week (4):

5. Consumer Staples (+0.52%)
9. Industrials (+0.07%)
10. Financials (-0.14%)
11. Energy (-0.36%)

Stagnant Sectors (Future Sectors Expected to Perform As Current)

Last Week (0):

None

Next Week (0):

None

Review

The stock market is expected to continue performing positively heading into next week, with more falling sectors moving into either uncertain sectors or positive sectors. The GICS Sector Performance Ratio has been generally trending upwards for the past five weeks, however overall the GSPR is never expected to maintain edge performance for too long (over 8 sectors performing positively or negatively). Many sectors are still questionable in performance despite the rally, and so for next week at least a drop in GSPR is to be expected. There will be major flips in sector performance going into next week, however it is expected to at least stay stagnant, with little to no losses in performance.

Last Week's Update (November 8th, 2019)

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M1 Finance Dividend Aristocrats 2019 Pie: https://m1.finance/quB1JH2k6

M1 Finance Portfolio: Dividend Aristocrats 2019 - Week 4 (November 8th, 2019 - $151.26)

Week 4 - $151.26

The stock market this week nearly fattened, only gaining slightly after some initial positive performance.

Total Report (Since October 11th, 2019)

Positive Performing Sectors

1. Industrials (+8.25%)

2. Consumer Discretionary (+5.43%)

3. Communication Services (+5.13%)

4. Materials (+5.00%)

5. Healthcare (+4.76%)
6. Energy (+4.57%)
7. Financials (+1.60%)

Negative Performing Sectors
8. Consumer Staples  (0.00%)

9. Information Technology (-0.26%)

10. Real Estate (-3.78%)

11. Utilities (-5.17%)

Weekly Report (November 8th, 2019)

Positive Performing Sectors

1. Materials (+2.17%)

2. Consumer Discretionary (+2.15%)

3. Communication Services (+1.22%)

4. Industrials (+0.85%)

5. Healthcare (+0.69%)

6. Information Technology (+0.54%)

7. Financials (+0.46%)

8. Consumer Staples (+0.28%)

Negative Performing Sectors

9. Energy (-0.22%)

10. Real Estate (-1.76%)

11. Utilities (-2.07%)

GICS Sector Performance Ratio - Balanced: From 8:3 (72.72%) to 8:3 (72.72%)

Starting this week, the Dividend Aristocrats 2019 Blog will be reorganized and streamlined to a simpler format that provides all the information of the previous updates with less clutter and wordiness. Instead it will provide only the important snippets for the week.

Rising Sectors (Future Sectors Expected to Perform Positively) 
Last Week  (4):
1. Consumer Discretionary (+2.01%)
3. Industrials (+1.36%)
6. Materials (+0.75%)
10. Energy (-0.16%)

Next Week (4):
1. Materials (+2.17%)
2. Consumer Discretionary (+2.15%)
4. Industrials (+0.85%)
9. Energy (-0.22%)

Falling Sectors (Future Sectors Expected to Perform Negatively)
Last Week (2):
9. Utilities (0.00%)
11. Real Estate (-2.04%)

Next Week (3):
8. Consumer Staples (+0.28%) 
10. Real Estate (-1.76%)
11. Utilities (-2.07%)

Uncertain Sectors (Future Sectors Expected to Perform Uncertainly)
Last Week (4):
2. Healthcare (+2.00%)
4. Communication Services (+1.21%)
7. Financials (+0.50%)
8. Information Technology (+0.25%)

Next Week (4):
3. Communication Services (+1.22%)
5. Healthcare (+0.69%)
6. Information Technology (+0.54%)
7. Financials (+0.46%)

Stagnant Sectors (Future Sectors Expected to Perform As Current)
Last Week (1):
5. Consumer Staples (+1.14%)

Next Week (0):
None

Review

Overall, it would be good for the Dividend Aristocrats to see better stability in the stock market moving forward. For now there are still many sectors that are either uncertain or falling, and I would like to see future performance that would warrant either a Stagnant or Rising Sector to better gauge the market's health. For now it is still too early to tell whether the market can maintain its slow and painful growth. By week 10, it should be clear where most of the market stands by then.

Last Week's Update (November 1st, 2019)
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M1 Finance Dividend Aristocrats 2019 Pie: https://m1.finance/quB1JH2k6

M1 Finance Portfolio: Dividend Aristocrats 2019 - Week 3 (November 1st, 2019 - $140.48)

Week 3 - $140.48

The optimism seen from last week appeared to be well-placed. With the recent jobs report for October overachieving its target, the S&P 500 grew 1.15% this week with the Dividend Aristocrats likewise echoing that sentiment.

Total Report (Since October 11th, 2019)

 

 

Positive Performing Sectors

1. Industrials (+6.23%)

2. Communication Services (+4.02%)

3. Healthcare (+3.43%)

4. Consumer Discretionary (+2.22%)

5. Materials (+2.12%)
6. Financials (+0.92%)
7. Energy (+0.64%)
8. Consumer Staples (+0.42%)

Negative Performing Sectors

9. Information Technology (-0.18%)

10. Real Estate (-0.28%)

11. Utilities (-1.38%)

Weekly Report (November 1st, 2019)

 

Positive Performing Sectors

1. Consumer Discretionary (+2.01%)

2. Healthcare (+2.00%)

3. Industrials (+1.36%)

4. Communication Services (+1.21%)

5. Consumer Staples (+1.14%)

6. Materials (+0.75%)

7. Financials (+0.50%)

8. Information Technology (+0.25%)

Negative Performing Sectors

9. Utilities (0.00%)

10. Energy (-0.16%)

11. Real Estate (-2.04%)

GICS Sector Performance Ratio - Balanced: From 5:6 (45.45%) to 8:3 (72.72%)

This is the first time with the Dividend Aristocrats portfolio that there is a sector that has a zero-net gain/loss. In other words, it broke even with its earnings. As Ozymandias Economics prefers conservative estimates when gauging expected returns, net-zero earnings are considered a Negative Performing Sector as it is an indication for stagnation.

Review

Many sectors jumped from negative to positive this week, regaining losses taken last week to earn considerable growth. There have been many back-and-forth sectors this time around, with some notable drops in sectors that have historically been very stable in their respective industries.

Consumer Discretionary came out in 1st (-2.66%) from 10th (+2.01%) last week. Considering how much this sector has fluctuated within the past few weeks, it can be reasonable to assume Consumer Discretionary to juggle between negative and positive performance looking forward into the next few weeks. However overall the sector has performed considerably positive, capitalizing on the large gains made during its positive performance and minimizing the losses during negative performance periods. More time will be needed to see how well this sector can maintain its earnings.

Healthcare followed a similar story, arriving in 2nd (-1.17%) from 9th (+2.00%) last week. Healthcare is a typically safer sector with a stable consumer base, so these fluctuations between negative and positive performance should be cause for concern. If the sector continues to outperform other sectors overall in the long run, then short periods of negative performance could be dismissed. However it is something to watch for as the portfolio continues to develop.

Industrials lost its position last week dropping from 1st (+1.76%) to 3rd (+1.36%), however it is still growing strong with a third straight week of positive performance. It has been hovering between 1-2% gains for some time now despite the swings in the market recently, not losing gains but not really capitalizing from those gains either. However with the current record, it can be assumed Industrials will continue to earn positively throughout the month, provided the sector remains stable as the market becomes more volatile overtime.

Communication Services have been the most drastic in performance of all other sectors by far. It went back up to 4th (+1.21%) from an abysmal 11th (-3.35%) last week. A sector such as Communication Services generally should not fluctuate as drastically as it had considering the market it serves. Such wild swings is an indicator of instability and thus increased volatility. Although Communication Services stand as an overall top performer, the sector could very easily lose that spot if it continues to experience wide fluctuations in the upcoming weeks.

Consumer Staples managed to remain positive this week, maintaining 5th place (+1.14%) from last week (+0.08%) as well as earning more than a percent in gains. If the sector continues to grow, it can be expected for Consumer Staples to rise up in overall ranking and potentially out of the danger zone hovering between positive and negative performance should it survive another market swing.

Materials fell down considerably to 6th (+0.75%) from 2nd place (+1.54%) last week. While the sector has been a substantially positive performer overall, the sector should be careful to maintain its performance going into next week. Otherwise Materials could expect to see itself in negative performance soon.

Financials barely climbed into the positive, maintaining 7th place (+0.50%) from last week (-0.27%). However, the half-percent performance gains this week aren't enough to keep it out from dropping back into negative performance come next week, and continued monitoring of this sector for future performance is necessary before assessing whether it will continue to climb up in performance as it stands.

Information Technology is a similar story, and although it dropped to 8th place (+0.25%) from 6th (-0.18%), the sector managed to reach positive performance after suffering negative performance last week. It is still too early to tell whether Information Technology will continue to positively perform, so further monitoring is necessary to gauge future earnings.

Utilities fell substantially this week, barely netting zero gains at 9th (0.00%) from its previous position in 4th (+0.62%). This sector has been the overall worst performer out of all, and it is questionable whether it will manage to obtain positive performance next week despite the small tenth of a percentage margin it needs to close.

Energy fell a substantial amount from its previous position at 3rd (+1.25%) to near bottom at 10th (-0.16%). The sector has never been a stable sector to begin with as much of its revenue is dependent on factors that are outside of most companies' control. However, given that Energy has overall performed positively these past few weeks, it is not unlikely that the sector could recover by next week, given how little margin the negative performance has been.

Real Estate was the hardest hit this week, falling even further from 8th (-0.44%) to last place at 11th (-2.04%). The economy revolves heavily around the performance of the Real Estate sector, and serves as the common link between other sectors. Every business requires some sort of Real Estate to conduct business, whether directly or indirectly. When an economy begins to shrink, the Real Estate sector is generally considered a good indicator for economic retraction and thus is the one that takes the biggest hit first. The sector had a significant drop in performance, and if it continues to perform negatively in the next few weeks, an economic recession could be on the horizon.

Overall, despite the significant performance from this week, there is still much concern regarding the overall health of the economy. For the sectors to go from a mostly negative performance to nearly all of them performing positively is a tremendous feat, however the most stable sectors considered in the economy struggled, namely Utilities and Real Estate. Those two sectors hold substantial sway in the economies of other sectors, despite what Ozymandias Economics teaches, and it would be wise to prepare for an economic downturn in the near future until it is apparent the correction will not result in a bull market that will further lead to recession. There must be continued growth moving forward for the negative performance of these critical sectors to be negated, and only more time will tell if that holds true.

Last Week's Update (October 25th, 2019)
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