Sunday, January 26, 2020

M1 Finance Portfolio: Dividend Aristocrats 2020 - Week 15 (January 24th, 2020 - $265.21)

Week 15 - $265.21

The stock market fell nearly an entire percent after news broke of a confirmed case of the Wuhan Coronavirus entering the United States.

Total Report (Since October 11th, 2019)



Positive Performing Sectors
1. Healthcare (+11.84%)
2. Information Technology (+10.09%)
3. Industrials (+8.92%)
4. Consumer Staples (+6.29%)
5. Utilities (+6.14%)
6. Materials (+4.03%)
7. Communication Services (+3.52%)
8. Consumer Discretionary (+3.13%)
9. Financials (+1.60%)

Negative Performing Sectors
10. Real Estate (-2.05%)
11. Energy (-5.26%)

Weekly Report (January 24th, 2020)



Positive Performing Sectors
1. Utilties (+3.09%)
2. Information Technology (+0.55%)
3. Materials (+0.04%)

Negative Performing Sectors 
4. Communication Services (-0.08%)
5. Consumer Staples (-0.19%)
6. Financials (-0.68%)
7. Real Estate (-0.84%)
8. Healthcare (-0.93%)
9. Industrials (-0.95%)
10. Energy (-1.53%)
11. Consumer Discretionary (-3.07%)

 GICS Sector Performance Ratio - Balanced: From 10:1 (90.91%) to 3:8 (27.27%)
 

Review

The pullback on stock gains last week was expected for Monday as investors sought to offload their earnings. They rose slowly over the week until news of the Wuhan epidemic had reached the US in its first confirmed case. Normally there would be cause for concern, however the US has been through many epidemics in the past twenty years: the Swine Flu and Ebola to name a few. Neither one resulted in a catastrophic health crisis and it would be reasonable to assume the Coronavirus is no different. The market setback from the epidemic news, therefore, could be considered a temporary setback until the market climbs back up within the next few weeks. Unless this epidemic truly grows into a serious threat worldwide, the impact the virus will have will be minor at best.

M1 Finance Platform Referral Link: https://m1.finance/UIl_N9XNA_CO
M1 Finance Dividend Aristocrats 2020 Pie: https://m1.finance/quB1JH2k6

Sunday, January 19, 2020

M1 Finance Portfolio: Dividend Aristocrats 2020 - Week 14 (January 17th, 2020 - $256.88)

Week 14 - $256.88

The market declined just before the signing of the Phase 1 Trade Deal between the US and China on Wednesday before surging in the week's last two days.

Total Report (Since October 11th, 2019)



Positive Performing Sectors
1. Healthcare (+13.09%)
2. Industrials (+12.02%)
3. Information Technology (+10.09%)
4. Consumer Discretionary (+7.98%)
5. Consumer Staples (+6.23%)
6. Materials (+5.71%)
7. Financials (+3.55%)
8. Communication Services (+3.18%)
9. Utilities (+0.92%)

Negative Performing Sectors
10. Energy (-0.70%)
11. Real Estate (-2.35%)

Weekly Report (January 17th, 2020)


Positive Performing Sectors
1. Utilities (+2.81%)
2. Healthcare (+2.72%)
3. Information Technology (+2.60%)
4. Real Estate (+2.13%)
5. Consumer Staples (+1.52%)
6. Materials (+1.16%)
7. Financials (+0.90%)
8. Communication Services (+0.77%)
9. Industrials (+0.77%)
10. Consumer Discretionary (+0.18%)

Negative Performing Sectors
11. Energy (-1.33%)

GICS Sector Performance Ratio - Balanced: From 6:5 (54.54%)  to 10:1 (90.91%)

 

Review

There had been some doubts and uncertainty in the market leading up to the Phase 1 Trade Deal signing between the US and China. First came the weak jobs report for December 2019, then news that tariffs on Chinese goods could continue until after the presidential election (which was to be expected). This brought the markets down until the positive jobless claims report by the Department of Labor and the increased retail sales numbers by the Department of Commerce reversed those losses, with higher confidence in international markets from the signing of the Phase 1 Trade Deal bolstering gains further. Nearly every sector grew as a result of the signs of continuing growth in the economy except for the Energy sector. This one particular sector is still reeling from the events of last week as the US slapped sanctions on Iran and potential turmoil in the Middle East placed doubt on the stability of oil prices in the future. GSPR-B stabilized at around the 60-percent mark after a tremendous gain this week, and it is expected that there will be some losses coming into next week as investors begin their selloff on Monday.

M1 Finance Platform Referral Link: https://m1.finance/UIl_N9XNA_CO
M1 Finance Dividend Aristocrats 2020 Pie: https://m1.finance/quB1JH2k6

Sunday, January 12, 2020

M1 Finance Portfolio: Dividend Aristocrats 2020 - Week 13 (January 10th, 2020 - $242.22)

Week 13 - $242.22

The stock market pared losses from last week's selloff as world tensions deescalated and shrugged off a mixed jobs report.


Total Report (Since October 11th, 2019)




Positive Performing Sectors
1. Industrials (+9.70%)
2. Healthcare (+9.47%)
3. Consumer Discretionary (+7.25%)
4. Information Technology (+5.47%)
5. Communication Services (+3.92%)
6. Consumer Staples (+3.29%)
7. Materials (+2.20%)
8. Financials (+0.72%)
9. Energy (+0.46%)

Negative Performing Sectors
10. Utilities (-3.45%
11. Real Estate (-6.38%)

Weekly Report (January 10th, 2020)


  

Positive Performing Sectors
1. Information Technology (+1.74%)
2. Healthcare (+0.84%)
3. Materials (+0.71%)
4. Real Estate (+0.46%)
5. Industrials (+0.43%)
6. Consumer Staples (+0.17%)

Negative Performing Sectors
7. Financials (-0.05%)
8. Utilities (-0.19%)
9. Consumer Discretionary (-0.33%)
10. Communication Services (-0.46%)
11. Energy (-1.86%)

GICS Sector Performance Ratio - Balanced: From 3:8 (27.27%) to 6:5 (54.54%)
 

Review

Despite a rocky start in the first days of January, the stock market recovered most of its losses following deescalation of tensions between the US and Iran, with neither side willing to escalate to armed conflict. Markets prefer stability and security among world economies. The risk is lower and rewards tend to be higher when investing in international markets, especially those with trade ties to other foreign markets. That said, markets are also willing to accept predictable factors with favorable outcomes. Even though increased risk in markets during times of high tension results in mass selloffs by risk-sensitive investors, if such threats to the economy becomes commonplace, the market overtime becomes resistant to such shock and eventually suffers less as the market learns to handle the risks involved.

Last Week's Update (January 3rd, 2020)
M1 Finance Platform Referral Link: https://m1.finance/UIl_N9XNA_CO
M1 Finance Dividend Aristocrats 2020 Pie: https://m1.finance/quB1JH2k6

Wednesday, January 8, 2020

Bear Markets vs Bull Markets: Minimize Losses or Maximize Gains


Bearish and Bullish Markets can be described by two distinct principles: Minimizing Losses and Maximizing Gains. Their namesake could be derived from how they choose to digest their food.

Bulls have a specialized digestive system that allows them to digest nearly any kind of plant as nourishment. They constantly feed and regurgitate and feed again, never stopping to rest. They're domesticated, and as such rely on outsiders to keep them healthy and comfortable from the elements. A Bullish Market constantly goes up as the food (money) is plentiful and signals strength and stability in the economic environment. If the economy is going up, the Bull's strategy is to take as much gains as possible. The Bull stuffs themselves with investments and makes liberal use of leverage to get ahead, putting more of their earnings into the market in an effort to capitalize on the upturn.

Bears are omnivorous, and as such can digest nearly anything they could get their hands on. They fatten themselves to prepare for cold winters, and are generally solitary animals living in unpredictable and harsh environments. A Bearish Market constantly goes down as the abundance of food (money) dwindles and the need to fortify one's investments through low-risk assets and securities increases. Bearish Markets go into hibernation as productivity slows and economic activity weakens. Few opportunities for capitalization exists. Interest rates for loans rise as the risk to find enough food before winter becomes dire and consequence of failure amplified. Bears fatten up with low-risk, high-liquid assets on hand and buying into cheap, sustainable investments until the winter market has gone.

Given any market condition, which would prevail? The Bull or the Bear?

One could argue that Bulls over the long run would fare far better than Bears. After all the S&P 500 averages around a 7-10% each year for its entire history, booms and busts included. Simply beating that average return per year is enough to stand out among the herd. Another argument for Bears could be made that most fortunes were made during times of recession, and by capitalizing on good value assets, one can stand out on top of the pack.

Yet as it turns out, neither of them fare better than the Buy-and-Hold investor. Buy-and-Hold simply invests money whenever and wherever they could into strong, stable assets that are good in any market condition. They maximize gains by keeping assets during the upturn and minimize losses through their continued investments in the downturn. Essentially they are the best of both worlds. Buy-and-Hold investors continually and regularly invest into the market regardless of its condition, and by doing so, they effectively become resistant to the effects of a stifled growth in Bull markets and the rapid decline of Bear markets. By averaging their asset costs through purchasing the same asset across an extended period of time, they stay ahead of the herd during good times while keeping on top of the pack during bad ones.

Thereby, if it is possible to obtain the best of both worlds, why only go for one? Keep investing and keep one's investments, no matter the condition. Only the ones that thrive in both worlds become hope to become the apex predator of one's finances.

Monday, January 6, 2020

Savings: Building for an Emergency Fund


Savings are money set aside for the purpose of later use immediately when one needs it. What purpose the savings serve can vary, from saving to a down payment on a car or a house to saving for a luxury item or vacation. Nevertheless, they all have one thing in common: liquidity.

For simple definition, Liquidity is how fast one can exchange things (e.g. assets and securities) for cash. For example, cash is the most liquid form of asset there is because, simply put, one can exchange cash for anything else with the same value. The exchange is instant, therefore it is very liquid. On the other extreme side of the scale, a house is considered illiquid because in order to exchange the house for cash, you would need to find a willing buyer, which can take many months.

How fast you can pull cash out of something is important to your financial security.

Savings are considered the most liquid form of asset one can possess. Access to cash is instant and can pay for anything at a moment's notice. This Savings could be anything: a piggy bank filled with coins, a steel safe with paper money, or a number at a bank's checking or savings account. They all are liquid as you have immediate access to that money. (Note: There is no distinction between a checking and savings account at a bank regarding the concept of Savings. They both serve the same purpose as a form of liquid cash, with the interest rates and withdrawal restrictions the only real defining feature between the two.)

Cars, gold, the home, and other valuable goods are virtually not dependable enough to be used as Savings themselves as they lack the means to quickly convert themselves into real cash: they are illiquid.  Converting such assets into cash requires time to negotiate and sell, and even then the equity of the assets themselves is not guaranteed. Cash itself is the best type of asset to have in one's Savings as it can be used to instantly fund a purchase and typically does not lose value in the short term against Inflation.

That said, Savings are designed primarily to safeguard against an immediate financial crisis as an Emergency Fund, particularly when an expense requires more than what one's current income can afford. When a line of income is cut and basic necessities are at risk, one can tap into the Emergency Fund to pay for these goods and services until more income becomes available in the future. It is a stopgap to keep oneself financially secure for a short period of time and prevent reliance on credit and incurring compounding debt as a result. Lost income is always a possibility, especially in poor economic conditions, and it is recommended that one saves at least 3 to 6 months-worth of living expenses to survive a loss in income. This can go up to a year's worth in the most extreme cases, however anymore put into Savings after that point becomes a lost opportunity to invest in assets. Save enough to be secure, but not too much to become a hindrance to your own financial growth. Savings themselves lose value to Inflation and the negligible interest accrued from a bank's savings account doesn't come close to protecting its value from Inflation.

There are some that use Savings for extravagances, and while it is acceptable to splurge on luxuries every so often, there are better ways to save for an extravagance than putting it in cash, such as buying Stock or Bonds. Extravagances can be delayed. Basic living needs cannot. Savings are meant to cover for this basic living needs, and thus the money needed to fund it should be immediate, not risked in anything that is locked away for a substantial time or incur any sort of loss.

Saving to have enough of a 3-6 month Emergency Fund requires good Budgeting practices. Most importantly: discipline. Yet many people neglect to budget in their everyday lives, let alone for their Savings. Establishing an Emergency Fund Savings is one of the first steps to take in achieving financial independence. Without it, any mishap in one's life could severely overwhelm one's finances and set themselves back many months or even years if one is not careful.  It only takes a second to ruin one's life. Safeguard yourself by safeguarding your finances. Use your Savings for an Emergency Fund and build it to account for a minimum of 3-month's living expenses. Do not neglect your savings and do not depend on your current income to rescue you. Savings will save your financial future when you need it the most.


Sunday, January 5, 2020

M1 Finance Portfolio: Dividend Aristocrats 2020 - Week 12 (January 3rd, 2020 - $233.51)

Week 12 - $233.51

A shortened trade week due to New Year celebrations fell early at the start, and soon recovered by Thursday. However, stocks tumbled on Friday as world tensions rose. 

Total Report (Since October 11th, 2019)

 


Positive Performing Sectors
1. Industrials (+9.99%)
2. Consumer Discretionary (+8.87%)
3. Healthcare (+7.57%)
4. Information Technology (+4.68%)
5. Energy (+4.38%)
6. Consumer Staples (+4.12%)
7. Communication Services (+3.97%)
8. Materials (+2.13%)
9. Financials (+1.27%)

Negative Performing Sectors
10. Utilities (-1.81%)
11. Real Estate (-6.41%)

Weekly Report (January 3rd, 2020)



Positive Performing Sectors
1. Energy (+0.58%)
2. Industrials (+0.44%)
3. Financials (+0.24%) 

Negative Performing Sectors
4. Communication Services (-0.05%)
5. Information Technology (-0.29%)
6. Healthcare (-0.63%)
7. Consumer Discretionary (-0.87%)
8. Real Estate (-0.96%)
9. Consumer Staples (-1.11%)
10. Utilities (-2.00%)
11. Materials (-2.88%)

GICS Sector Performance Ratio - Balanced: From 7:4 (63.64%) to 3:8 (27.27%)


Review
 
The New Year's week had started off rough with a light sell-off before making back gains on Thursday, only to tumble back down by Friday as investors consider increasing world tensions and the subsequent effects it may have on global trade. This has brought GSPR-B to trend downwards to its lowest point recorded thus far, and should these tensions be realized, it would be expected for the economy to enter into a recession soon after. However the likeliness of any substantial conflict materializing is limited, as the benefits of global stability and security far outweigh the existential threats of modern society. It can be expected that stocks will recover if there is no further escalation and provocations in world politics.

Last Week's Update (December 27th, 2019)
M1 Finance Platform Referral Link: https://m1.finance/UIl_N9XNA_CO
M1 Finance Dividend Aristocrats 2020 Pie: https://m1.finance/quB1JH2k6

Friday, January 3, 2020

Credit Cards: A Test of Financial Responsibility


Credit Cards are a double-edged sword. If used correctly, it can be a powerful tool in one's financial arsenal. Abused, and they can lead one's life to a terrifying crisis.

Before we dive into the details of using a credit card, we first must understand why credit cards were made.

Credit cards were not always around. They first appeared in 1950 as an early form of a "charge card" where a person would simply pay the entire amount owed at the end of each month. It gave people the flexibility to purchase items without needing cash on hand. It was a more fancier method of "putting it on one's tab," so to speak. So long as the owed amount was paid every month, there was no issue.

This simple idea eventually caught on over the years as businesses began issuing their own charge cards and in 1958, Bank of America would launch BankAmericard, considered the first modern credit card. Unlike its predecessors, this "credit card" would contain a credit limit that prevented people from spending excessively until the owed amount was paid off. For those that didn't pay on time, a heavy fee was incurred in the form of interest on the owed amount. Credit cards had essentially become instant, unsecured personal loans that anyone could get, no questions asked.

The Credit Card provided three essential benefits to the economy: convenience to customers, higher business traffic, and monetary protection. People that normally did not have money until the next paycheck could now purchase goods on the fly and simply pay it back the next time they have money available. This led to higher business traffic as people could simply "finance" their purchases with a bank's money and get their goods immediately instead of having to wait to pay for it with their own money. Of course, this immediate access to unsecured credit meant some people were going to spend more than what they could afford, which is where the last point of monetary protection comes in. The businesses themselves get money from the bank itself as people use credit cards to make purchases. This leaves the bank holding the debt instead, and in return for holding the debt for the credit cardholder, the cardholder promises to make minimum payments each month on the principle debt and the accrued interest on that debt.

Everyone wins. Except for credit card abusers.

Credit Cards were originally designed to be a stop-gap for those without immediate access to cash. It was back in the day when everything was paid in physical money, and you would have to cash out of the bank every time to go shopping. Credit Cards allowed people to spend money without physically carrying money, making everyday business transactions quick, simple, and most importantly, safe.

It's when people begin to abuse the purpose of a credit card that gets them in trouble. Instant access to credit does not equate to a larger cash pile. No matter if it's $10, $100, or $1000, that money is the lender's money, and eventually it must be paid in full. Credit cards are built solely for convenience, nothing more. Indeed, everything designed around the credit card is to encourage you to be a responsible credit cardholder. The annual fees prevent would-be abusers from obtaining free credit, the high interest rates discourage irresponsible debtors, and the rewards, cash backs, and increasing available credit limit encourages good financial habits.

It is because of these characteristics that credit cards are considered so heavily in determining one's Credit Score, the measure of how financially responsible you are. Credit Cards are instant, trackable, and repeatable in a very short amount of time, something which other loans such as mortgages can't reasonably determine early on.

Good credit card users reap all the benefits and rewards from proving themselves to be financially reliable people. More people are willing to lend to them for much more at much favorable rates because they've proven themselves to be dependable and trustworthy with money.

Bad credit card users suffer all the drawbacks, with little leniency. Credit lines dry up, interest payments accumulate, options dwindle, and everyone is made aware of the bad financial reputation you possess.

Credit Cards are just like any other type of loan. They can hurt you, or they can help you. However you must be wise in its use. Abuse its power, and it will return to abuse you. Care for it, and it will care for you. Budget below your means, and never include what the Credit Card provides. Avoid spending more than you can currently afford without the Credit Card, and always pay the debt back on time without fail. People are trusting you to be financially responsible with their own money. Prove you are indeed responsible, and they will support you without hesitation.


Thursday, January 2, 2020

Money is an Illusion



Money is an illusion. It only holds value because people perceive it to have value. A US dollar only holds value in places that accept US dollars. A Euro only holds value in places that accept Euros. Even gold only holds value if the other is willing to accept it.

Currency is based solely on a common agreement between parties that exchanging goods for a singular item, money, will guarantee a future exchange of other goods for that same item. The idea of Money in its sole form is simply to allow people to exchange goods and services that they desire without exchanging different goods and services the other party dislikes.

Ancient Egypt for most of its history relied on the archaic Bartering system for its economy. Everything had to be traded in physical goods: bushels of grain, iron, timbre, gold (Gold was not considered a currency at the time). Because of this, all business had to be done by "bartering" with the other party to obtain something you need. If you made pottery, all you had to pay for everything you need in life was the pottery you produced. If the other party did not accept your payment of pottery for basic necessities such as food and water, you were out of luck. (As a side note, Ancient Egypt did have a form of early currency called Deben that were used as weights. This served as a  representation of a fixed number of goods to assess equal value between items and not as a real tradable good. One Deben could represent one hundred bushels of grain, for example. The Deben themselves were made from a variety of things, from copper and gold to stone weights)

Money solved this fundamental issue of trading. It was a promise that whatever goods you traded for money, money will get you whatever goods you needed as well. It was the single unifying factor of trade needed to properly grow an ancient economy. Everyone had to agree to that promise for it to work, however, and they did. It simply made trade much easier for everyone involved, and now there was no need to barter what goods you were willing to pay, or accept payment, for. What was a matter of "what" soon became a matter of "how much." Thus began the first steps of a modern economy.

The invention of Money brings with it another important idea: dividing resources. Money is simply a slice of the total resources available in a state's economy. Therefore, the more money one has, the bigger slice of resources one is entitled to.

A common example is the apples comparison. Let's assume there are only 100 apples and that sticks are used to purchase them. If there are 100 sticks, there each apple is worth 1 stick. However, if people were to break beaches to make more sticks to make 100 more sticks, there would be a total of 200 sticks in circulation. There are still only 100 apples to buy. Because of this, 1 apple is now worth 2 sticks as the number of sticks are more plentiful than apples. This simple idea is called Inflation. You now need more sticks to get the same number of apples in the future than you did in the past.

One may argue that the price of apples only rose because other people raised the price. If the price of apples only kept to 1 stick, there would be no issue, right?

This would be disastrous for an economy in reality. Remember, money is only a representative slice of the total economy.  By keeping prices the same, you are essentially claiming you have 200 apples-worth to sell to others when in reality you only have 100 to spare. The number of apples would run out before the number of sticks run out, leaving you with 100 sticks and 0 apples by the end of the day. The sticks are now worthless as they cannot be exchanged for anything! This is the root cause of shortages and hyperinflation. Money is printed, but no new resources are made. As more resources are drained by society due to overabundance of cash, prices have to be raised to stop resource overconsumption. The free market naturally adjusts itself to properly allocate resources to those that provide the most value, the most resources to society. The more resource you can produce, the more you are entitled to a larger share of the economic pie.

This fundamental understanding is why in Capitalism, the Rich get Richer and Time and Effort does not equate to more Money: Adding Value to Society does. It is also why laws are written to heavily favor big businesses and investors, from tax breaks and subsidies to legal privileges. These two groups add more value to society than any single employee or small business can add, and thus it becomes logical to encourage people to build big businesses and invest in others: governments do not want growth to stop.

This is also why providing an economic cushion to impoverished citizens is a contentious issue. Governments want a return on their investments just as any private citizen would. If the government provides a universal safety net through providing welfare to its citizens, they want to see those same citizens growing and providing value to society. No government wants to see its citizens taking advantage of the safety need to drain more resources from society. At that point, they become a liability not just to themselves but to everyone else as well. They are not providing the value they should to compensate for the economic loss the safety net provides.

Mixed economies like those seen in Europe do provide a substantially large safety net to its citizens, and as a result these citizens enjoy a much higher standard of living with a relatively stable economy. This does come at a cost of economic growth, as research, development, and entrepreneurship slows from the downside of unfavorable laws that affect business. This is why many of the largest tech companies in the world are predominantly founded in countries such as the United States, China, or Japan. Growth is everything to them, and as a result favor business with rapid growth. Growth is an indicator of resource surplus, and the more surplus there is, the better a country fares in bad times.

At least that's the idea. The Great Recession of 2008 put to test that idea, and of the countries still struggling from the Recession, Japan was one notable victim. Inflated valuations coupled with aggressive monetary and fiscal policy meant inflation was outpacing actual productivity, and the imaginary resource surplus they had accumulated resulted in an economic bubble that exposed how little they had been growing in reality.

Money is an illusion. It is only as useful as long as everyone plays by its rules, and so long as an economy has the resources to back up its claim. It has given people the extraordinary flexibility to get whatever they want, whenever they want, while tediously managing their nation's total resources without compromising its stockpile in the background. It encourages productivity, and indeed it results in productivity, yet one must beware of imagined money that no one can claim: Equity.


Like Money, Equity is an illusion, but not one everyone agreed to. Central Banks can't print it, laws can't tax it, and no real basis for its worth. Equity is merely what one is willing to pay for something at the time. Take a painting for example. The painting is the same for a hundred years, but the price only goes up simply because someone is willing to buy it at a higher price in the future. If for some reason no one finds any appeal for the painting in the next hundred years, then the painting is effectively worthless. Equity relies solely on the whims of the people, and that is the most horrifying economic system to have. There is no total control over it, and economic systems can fail at a moment's notice due to its deceitful power of illusionary resource abundance. By simply claiming it is more than what it phyiscally is, Equity can drain the resource surplus "real" money accumulated in society. It tricks people to wasteful spending. It lures people with a mirage of riches. Worst of all, it is entirely self-inflicted. Equity is how economic bubbles are made.

Money is an illusion. It is a human construct made to help passively allocate resources in society in a simple and convenient manner. It controls our wants and desires, encourages us to conserve for our essential needs, and become more productive to society. It is a promise to our future selves and to others that we will do better, an everlasting debt we pay to be part of this grand social experiment of Community. Money is a marvelous thing, yet it is best served as a tool to keep our most deepest desires in check, not to encourage it. Those who understand this, the real purpose of Money, will come to be its master. Those who do not will always be enslaved to it.


M1 Finance Portfolio: Dividend Aristocrats 2020 - Week 52 (October 9th, 2020 - $1,054.99)

Week 52 - $1,054.99 Total Report (Since October 11th, 2019) Weekly Report (October 9th, 2020) GICS Sector Performance Rati...